Last night I had the opportunity to chat with the guys at Baseball Press.

We talked about the San Diego Padres acquisitions of Ryan Ludwick and Miguel Tejada, the team’s pitching staff, prospects, and playoff chances.

The entirety of the podcast can be found here.

In a bit of a shocker, the deadline to sign Rule 4 Draft picks came and passed without the San Diego Padres striking a deal with first round selection (ninth overall pick) RHP Karsten Whitson.

The Padres also failed to sign highly touted RHP A.J. Vanegas, who they selected in the seventh round. Vanegas has a commitment to Stanford. Later picks Miguel Pena, Sean Dwyer, and Connor Hofmann also did not sign. The same can be said for a slew of late-rounders.

The Padres did go over slot to sign the likes of Zach Cates (third round, $381K) John Barbato (sixth round, $1.4M), and Jose Dore (eighth round, $450K).

As I mentioned in my draft recap, we would have to at least wait until August (after the deadline) to make any final determination on the future prospects of this draft. Well, it’s August, and you could easily argue that the Padres failed to sign the two best players they selected in this year’s draft.

What makes this so strange is that there wasn’t any rumors about Whitson being a tough sign after the pick was made or leading up to the deadline. In fact, he was reported to be a relatively easy sign for a top high school pitcher. Jed Hoyer says that the Padres had a verbal agreement with Whitson and company for $1.9M just after the draft. The number got bumped up to $2.1M at the deadline, but that wasn’t enough for Whitson.

It’s a fascinating situation and it’s easy to come down hard on the either side here. Whitson  broke a verbal agreement and apparently completely changed his tune after the draft. That said, according to Hoyer, Whitson was looking for a figure in the $2.7M range. The Padres wouldn’t spend an extra $600-800K to sign an elite talent.

Listening to Hoyer’s voice, it appears that this may be as much a matter of principle as it is an economic decision. Whitson broke a promise and because of that the Padres weren’t going to give him what he was looking for. That is not necessarily a bad thing, but from a fan’s perspective the organization isn’t as strong now as it could be, with both Whitson and Vanegas going to college.

Sure, the Padres will get the eleventh pick in the 2011 draft, which is supposed to be a much deeper crop. But that’s another year down the road, another year later before the player even begins his major league development. Not to mention, the Padres won’t have protection next year, giving their draftee added leverage.

This is an interesting situation, one far too complicated to truly analyze from the outside. To me, the scary part is if, for some reason, the Padres simply let $600-800K get in the way of acquiring a very good young baseball player.

We’ve commended the Padres recently for going above slot and/or selecting different types of players than in recent years – generally, high upside guys that are going to require more money to sign (i.e., Tate, Williams, and Sampson). Hopefully the Padres haven’t let this year’s success at the major league level blind them to the fact that it is imperative for a small market team to build through a strong farm system.

For more, Nathaniel has an excellent article on the situation at Chicken Friars.

The San Diego Padres have now signed seven of their top ten picks from the 2010 draft, as they announced the signing of third round pitcher Zach Cates yesterday:

The Padres have agreed to terms with Northeast Texas CC righthander Zach Cates for $765,000, the largest bonus paid out in the third round so far this year. It’s also more than double MLB’s recommendation of $380,700 for his No. 91 draft slot.

Cates spent most of his 2009 freshman season as a catcher and pitched just seven innings before blossoming on the mound as a sophomore. His fastball ranged from 90-93 to 95-97 mph, and he also showed a relatively advanced changeup. His curveball flashes some promise as well. He would have transferred to Oklahoma State had he not turned pro.

The Padres have also signed eighth round pick Jose Dore, an outfielder from Florida (and a Florida State commit) for $450,000, three times the recommended slot.

The deadline to sign draft picks is tomorrow at 11:59PM (EST) and the Padres still haven’t signed their first pick RHP Karsten Whitson, their sixth round pick RHP John Barbato, or their seventh round selection RHP A.J.  Vanegas.

Whitson is a consensus premium talent and he’s expected to sign. Barbato and Vanegas have always had signability issues, as they both fell to the Padres due to their commitments to Florida and Stanford, respectively.

It has been nice to see the Padres (1) draft premium talent over the last couple of years and (2) sign most of those picks, going over slot to do so. Hopefully we will see the trend continue tomorrow with the Padres inking Whitson, Barbato, and Vanegas to deals.

In 2008 and 2009, Kevin Kouzmanoff posted 2.7 WAR seasons for the San Diego Padres.  In 2007, his WAR was 2.5.  This season, the Oakland Athletics have played 115 games, and Kouzmanoff has compiled 1.8 WAR. If he were to continue his pace, Kouzmanoff would end the year with 2.5 WAR.

Kouzmanoff is an incredibly average third baseman.   Padres fans might remember Kouzmanoff as prone to extended slumps, but year after year, he has put up league average performances.  I have not done the research, but in terms of WAR, Kouzmanoff might just be the major’s most consistent players.

As reports begin to come in that the San Diego Padres are close to signing 1st round pick Karsten Whitson the cards are stacked against him becoming a productive major league ball player. If Whitson is going to make the majors, he is going to have to beat the infamous Padres curse of 1st pick futility.

Much has been said and written about the ineffectiveness of the Padres first round draft picks over the years. Bad luck, injuries, money shortages, and the general crap shoot that is the draft have all been used to excuse/explain the struggles of the Padres. But no matter what way you try to spin it, or offer an explanation for it, the first round draft picks have and continue to struggle.

The last time the Padres first overall pick became a successful MLB player who didn’t have a nervous breakdown (sorry Khalil) was in 1994 when the Padres drafted Dustin Hermanson who was in the majors from 1995 until his retirement in 2006. Of course he had most of his successful years as an Expo and not a Padre.

After that we saw names like Ben Davis, Matt Halloran, Kevin Nicholson, Sean Burroughs and Vince Faison. In the past decade the Padres have drafted 5 position players, 4 pitchers, and a Matt Bush (not counting the unsigned Whitson). Of the 10 players only 2 (Khalil and Stauffer) have made the majors. Of the 10, 3 are no longer in baseball (Khalil Gautreau, and Phillips). Of the 7 active players, Stauffer is the only one who can be thought of as having a good season this year. The rest….well not so much

To make matters worse all 3 pitchers have missed an entire year with arm injuries. I really hope the futility of the 1st overall draft started and ended with the John Moores and Kevin Towers era of Padre baseball, but until Tate, Whitson and whomever the Padres choose next year become productive major leaguers there will continue to be a big stain on the Padres drafting.

A few weeks ago I moved to Los Angeles to start a new job.  For the most part, all I have been doing is working. I have become familiar with the 110 freeway, the two-block radius around my apartment, and the two South Los Angeles surface streets I take once I exit the 110 to get to and from work each day.  Other than that, I really have not seen much of L.A.

Last night however I was able to secure a few cheap tickets to the Dodger’s game against the Washington Nationals via Craigslist.*  In a titillating pitching match-up, the great Livan Hernandez matched Hiroki Kuroda for seven innings before turning the game over to the bullpens.  The game went to extra-innings, where the Duds won on a James Loney walk-off base-hit in the bottom of the tenth.

*Is there really any reason to purchase single-game seats direct from teams any more?  By purchasing second-hand from somebody via Craigslist on the day of the game, you can easily cut your purchase price in half.  People selling game-day tickets on Craigslist have minimal negotiating power.  Almost always they are people who cannot make it to the game and will take whatever they can get for their tickets.  Yesterday, I secured four $35 tickets for $15 each, and frankly, I probably could have gotten them for $10 each.

The game was not overly exciting, and the outcome somewhat disappointing, but it was nice to see Dodger Stadium for the first time.  Here are a few observations:

• Access into and out of the stadium is a nightmare.  There is minimal public transportation to the game, which means everybody is forced to drive there.  The problem is there are not many ways to access the stadium, which creates huge traffic jams.  No wonder Dodger fans are notorious for arriving in the 3rd inning and leaving by the 7th.  The traffic is not worth dealing with.
• I have never experienced such long lines for food at a baseball game.  The cost of my hot dog and beer was much more than the ridiculous $15 purchase price.  I also missed the entirety of two innings.
• Speaking of hot-dogs, I was pretty disappointed with my “Dodger Dog.”  The “all-beef” dog was thin, wrinkly, and lacked flavor.  The bun to dog ratio was way off as well.  The thing tasted like a hot dog bun with mustard, ketchup, relish, and onions spread over it.  Which isn’t terrible if you are super hungry at home and have nothing left in the fridge/pantry.  But for $5, I want to be able to taste at least some of that “all-beef” goodness.
• The home bullpen is one of the sorriest things I have ever seen.  Tucked away in left-field, the Dodger’s bullpen is tiny, surrounded by a hideous chain-link fence, and is stocked with flimsy lawn chairs for the players to sit on.  That’s the type of accommodations I expect the visiting team’s bullpen to receive.  Not the home team.
• Finally, the bathrooms.  The stadium is old, so it should come as no surprise that the bathroom’s are pretty ancient as well.  They are not necessarily dirty.  Just old.  As with many restroom’s at old stadiums, the urinals are trough style.  Some people dislike trough’s in public facilities, and they are rarely installed at newer stadiums.  But personally, I don’t mind them.  The line moves quicker. Trough’s allow for a more efficient use of restroom real-estate, and personally, I don’t feel like there is an alarming reduction in privacy.  Lets be honest, people who want to “sneak a peak” can do so at traditional urinals nearly as easily as trough style urinals.

John Sickels reviews his top 21 Padres prospect list over at Minor League Ball.

Outside of a few guys, namely Simon Castro, Drew Cumberland, and Keyvius Sampson, the Padres top-tier prospects have not had a good year, collectively. Still looks like a solid system overall, but it doesn’t appear like this season is going to be a positive one for the farm, performance-wise. 

I was on vacation when the San Diego Padres made their two deadline moves, so I’m not as tuned in as I’d normally be. That said, I thought I’d take some time to share my thoughts on the deals. Daniel covered both trades right here already and Geoff Young has some nice analysis at The Hardball Times.

Padres trade RHP Wynn Pelzer to Orioles for 3B Miguel Tejada

Initially, I wasn’t really feeling this one (still not sure I fully approve). I think Daniel’s analysis summed it up pretty nicely; Tejada isn’t that good anymore, but Pelzer really won’t be missed.

My issue is that, while I don’t think Pelzer is bound for stardom, he’s still a pretty nice chip to give away for Tejada. Before the season he was rated as the seventh best prospect in the organization by Baseball America, fifth by Kevin Goldstein, and fifth by John Sickels. Sure, Pelzer hasn’t been great in AA this season, but he hasn’t exactly fell on his face either, striking out eight per nine while walking just over five.

I can buy the idea that the Padres are trading from a surplus here, as pitching depth is certainly an organizational strength. However, that doesn’t mean you have to give it away. If Pelzer was destined to be traded, could they not have gotten more for him?

That said, Tejada may have some value. He’s in the midst of an awful season in 2010, but he’s only one year removed from being a slightly above average player. It wouldn’t be a shocker if a change in scenery and a spot in the playoff hunt helped to improve Tejada’s production down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Further justify the trade is that idea that acquiring a former MVP and household name shows the fans (and players) that the Padres are serious about winning. While this doesn’t really have a tangible on-field impact, it certainly doesn’t hurt the organization as a whole.

Overall, I’m torn on this one. Tejada could play well and Pelzer could fizzle out. Just as likely, though, I could see Tejada offering little value down the stretch and Pelzer developing into a solid bullpen arm. I suppose it’s not a bad gamble to take considering the Padres position right now.

Padres trade RHP Corey Kluber to Indians and LHP Nick Greenwood to Cardinals and acquire OF Ryan Ludwick from Cardinals

This one looks like it might really be a gem for the Pads. Neither Kluber or Greenwood are throwaways, both putting up impressive minor league numbers, Kluber a little more so but Greenwood with his left arm. Still, neither are highly-touted prospects. Kluber didn’t get a mention on Sickels’ list and Greenwood earned a C rating.

Meanwhile, Ryan Ludwick instantly becomes the Padres second best position player, offering slightly above average production both offensively and defensively. Further, Ludwick isn’t just a rental, as he enters his final year of arbitration next season. The Padres should be able to keep him around in 2011 for a relatively modest figure.

Again, Kluber and/or Greenwood could turn into useful pieces, but with this trade, unlike the Tejada deal, Ludwick is much more likely to produce for the Padres, helping not only in the playoff run this season but also in 2011.

Overall, I like what the Padres did at the deadline. They didn’t really go all in, adding a Roy Oswalt  or a Dan Haren. They did, however, make some tangible improvements without giving up too much in the form of prospects. .

In a somewhat surprising move, the San Diego Padres acquired Ryan Ludwick from the St. Louis Cardinals as part of a three-team deal that also saw Jake Westbrook leave Cleveland for St. Louis.

Personally, its a deal I love.

Ludwick is a solid bat who instantly becomes the Padres second best hitter.  His 0.354 wOBA is solidly above average, as he gets on base at a good clip (0.343 OBP), and hits with a decent amount of power (0.484 SLG).

For the rest of the season, ZiPS projects Ludwick to improve his offensive numbers slightly, but a move to Petco Park will probably dampen his unadjusted statistics.

What people might not realize about Ludwick is he is actually a pretty solid fielder.  For his career, Ludwick’s UZR/150 in the outfield is 7.6 runs above average.  Already this season, UZR has him at a 8.8 runs above average.  A big part of the Padres success this season has been the strength of their fielding, and adding Ludwick should not change that.

Ludwick will likely take some playing time away from the likes of Will Venable and Chris Denorfia.  That’s fine.  Ludwick is an obvious upgrade, worth about an extra win over the remainder of the season.

In return for Ludwick, the Padres gave up minor league pitchers Nick Greenwood, who according to Keith Law: “shows no projection beyond middle reliever right now,” and Corey Kluber.  Kluber leads the Texas League in strikeouts, but is already 24 years old, still in AA, and projects as a back-end of the rotation starter at best.

Salary-wise, Ludwick is being paid $5.45MM this year, and his salary is likely to increase to around $8MM-$9MM next season in arbitration, a level where there is still some surplus value.

In return for two non-impact prospects, the Padres acquired a year and a half of Ryan Ludwick.  He further improves the club’s playoff chances both this year and next year, giving the team some added pop without weakening the defense.  This is the exact type of trade contending teams with room to add payroll should be making.

Miguel Tejada is not a good player anymore.  He doesn’t hit that well, and he doesn’t field that well.  But the San Diego Padres did not give up much to get him, as Wynn Pelzer looks unlikely to become anything more than a middle reliever.

Tejada provides some depth in the infield, and looks to be a slight marginal upgrade.  But hey, when you’re in the playoff hunt in late July, a slight marginal upgrade could make the difference in the end.